Thursday, February 12, 2009

Reallocation of Resources to longer-cycle businesses?

More and more job losses, people moving their investments into cash, inventories being drawn down. We are developing huge gluts of resources just waiting to be redistributed. This seems like an excellent opportunity to create something great - be it new businesses or some other form of revolution.

The government is the largest force trying to use these resources. Its goal is mixed between getting people back to work as quickly as possible and creating something that will drive long-term prosperity (rebuilding roads versus new technology).

One alternative - very long-cycle businesses. It would seem that recessions can make longer cycle business idea more viable. Normally - these business ideas must compete for resources with shorter cycled businesses - which increase their costs and would make their ROE below the point of investment. During a recession, however, costs and ROE expectations are much lower. Since no one is making money now, revenue in 5 years instead of today is more accepted (and good long-cycle businesses might fill a large vacant hole in the economy). So these longer-cycled businesses suddenly start having positive NPV. Plus, since they would be producing, they can aid in the recovery.

Stumbling blocks seem to be: 1) Are there good enough ideas out there that can be found? 2) Will resources remain plentiful for long enough?

While short-term stimulus plans are beneficial to jump start demand of your typical businesses and prevent unemployed individuals from losing their franchise value - they also present a hindrance to these long-cycle businesses.

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