Saturday, February 28, 2009

$1 earned in a recession = $2?

Asset prices are incredibly low right now - DOW @ 7000, S&P @ 730, everything on sale, housing prices incredibly low, etc. These low prices make any income seem much greater than normal - since you can buy more for less and save/invest at low prices. For someone making 100,000/year who would typically save 20000/year - might now be able to save $30000/year without a change in lifestyle.

That savings of 20000 vs 30000 is also going into depressed asset prices - so when a recovery occurs, that savings will grow to be that much more.

This suggests that decisions to earn an income should accelerate - those who may have pursued other pursuits could arguably be more attracted to jobs because they pay that much more. Similarly, companies could afford paying less - not only because of higher unemployment rates but also because the value of the dollar as implicitly increased.

This reasoning is similar to that of why low beta stocks rise during recessions - because people prefer cash in recessions - not only because its safe, but because it can buy more.

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